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Central Scrutinizer

Here, Hold My Beer. Shocked

2 years into the Research Track Assessment of red snapper, splitting out the stock into biological/ecological/growth rate/exploitation rate/maximum longevity/etc.... and a whole host of other stock assessment parameters, the Review Workshop was held in Tampa last Tuesday-Friday. In normal situations, the 'model' gets the final thumbs up by the independent reviewers, and immediately it's rolled into the Operation Assessment for catch advice going to the Council.

Bada Boom, Bada Bing - 18 months later the Council votes on the recommended Management Advice, and the States can now set their seasons under the approved catch limits (with the trends going up, and up, and up).

WELL,....... this was no 'normal situation'. The Center for Independent Experts basically said - the 3 stock model, throw it out, a bunch of data assumptions are without merit, throw them out, taking into account the Great Red Snapper Count, throw it out......

The Assessment was not recommended to go forward! Doesn't happen often, so it's not totally unheard of. But with this being THE red snapper, it was quite the shock to the system.

Going forward, it's back to a Benchmark Assessment, which is likely a 2+(+) more year process, just to get back to the Operational to get Catch Advice to the Council (18 months later, at a BARE minimum).

So, every state is left with - what you got now, is what you got moving forward, until new catch advice comes out - DESPITE the data clearly showing the Western Gulf is completely rebuilt, and the issues in the Northeast FL panhandle will again get swept under the rug with a 2 stock model.

So trout fishermens that are outraged at the local control, these same frustrations are felt Gulf-Wide.
CS

awesum · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2023 9:17 am Post subject:

Interesting ...

Rebecca of Sunnybrookfarm · Full Grown Flour Bluffian Joined: 01 May 2008 Posts: 3856

Central Scrutinizer

Rebecca of Sunnybrookfarm · Full Grown Flour Bluffian Joined: 01 May 2008 Posts: 3856

rodandroll · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2023 3:23 pm Post subject:

Well hell, I agree with Central, and for once at least I agree with Sunnie. Effectively what you guys are saying is that we are "Getting the Shaft Again" Problem is the squeaky wheel radical activist lefties today get all the grease. Most of the standard fishermen today just sit back and take whatever is thrown at them.

What do you think might happen if the regular fishsermen got in your face active with the Feds and TPWD. I talking protests with news people present at meetings of these govt. groups. Raising hell with politicians. Screaming and squalling to the high heavens just like the radical activist lefties do. A biologist who is pushing an obvious personal agenda gets his azz targeted and fired. I would be willing to bet that you would see some change in the attitude of these sewer bureaucrats. But alas, regular folks like most of those who traffic this site just don't have the huevos to get loud and proud. And, this is exactly what it is going to take to get things changed.
_________________
Now that food has replaced my sex life I can't even get into my own pants!!!!!!!!

Even duct tape can't fix stupid ... but it can muffle the sound!!!

Central Scrutinizer · Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2023 10:10 am Post subject:

Well, every Council/SSC/SEDAR/TPWD Commission/Scoping/etc. etc. etc. meeting are open to the public, and have a 'Public Comment' period in the agenda. There are numerous commercial fishermen and an occasional recreational/guide that attend SSC meetings. Their input is highly valued by the panels, and believe it or not, they are listened to. If you got a beef, show up and let it be known.

And in that same vein, the biggest 'Data Deficiency' at any level is recreational catch/effort and catch&release mortality. Commercial catch can be tracked from the boat-to the dealer-to the retailer, and the data is nearly perfect. Many commercial vessels have on-board observers, and now some have video systems that allow for estimation of releases and even size distributions of what goes back. Some charters also allow on-board observes, but with the 6-pack limit, it's not as wide-spread. Good data can also be found in the Headboat fleet.

The biggest unknown is the effort level of the recreational side. Only public launches are surveyed for what comes back to the dock. If a boat comes back to a private dock, there is no way to get at the removal data, nor gauge the effort level. Zero information is collected about the releases. And its all voluntary, so when you brush off the dockside sampler, zero data is available.

That's why effort was originally estimated by the Coastal Telephone Household Survey, that morphed into the MRIP estimation once everybody went to cell phones, and now it's the Federal Effort Estimation (FES) where those 'guess factors' come from.

Point being, when you wave away a sampler, the guess factor gets less and less precise. Participation from the dockside to the Commission/Council level is up to the end-user (i.e., regular fisherman). If you don't like the data, it's not because there is some commie b@stard pinko enviro-turd pushing an agenda. Math rules at the stock assessment level, and the math is only as good at what the model gets fed.

rodandroll · Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2023 12:37 pm Post subject:

Central Scrutinizer · Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2023 1:22 pm Post subject:

Public Comments submitted on-line are usually taken also, the only hiccup is for the SEDAR Review, you physically have to be in person. So, 95% of the time, if you have a beef, you can be heard.

I can not argue against your 'inflation coming down' example. I tell people it's like you're a fat b@stard that recently put on an additional 100+ lbs, and then when you drop 10 or 15 lbs, and you scream 'Look How Well My Diet is Working"!!!! I get it, the data can be manipulated to ones agenda (think The N@ppy-Headed little Press Secretary in the current Administration).

rodandroll · Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2023 1:33 pm Post subject:

Central Scrutinizer · Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2023 1:58 pm Post subject:

rodandroll · Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2023 6:46 pm Post subject:

Central Scrutinizer · Posted: Sat Dec 23, 2023 8:36 am Post subject:

That's Squirrley Dan, from the comedy show 'Letterkenny'.
He's famous for pluralizing words, especially the phrase 'and that's what I appreciates about you'.

I've never doubted your intellect. I'm just here to provide inside baseball knowledge about fishery issues.

rodandroll · Posted: Sat Dec 23, 2023 11:42 am Post subject:

Central Scrutinizer · Posted: Sat Dec 23, 2023 12:17 pm Post subject:

In a nutshell, "What it is is what it is". Each State sets their own size/slot/bag limit for things not regulated at the Federal level.

TX was 10 per day forever, and it got pushed down to 5, then the freezes / other problems has led to the data saying 3 is likely the maximum sustainable yield number, with the current slot and the allowance for 1 over the maximum size.

Jump over a State, and LA used to be 25, with a minimum size of 12", Shocked

and yes, fish swim across the Sabine and don't honor state boundaries. Now their data say 15 per day with a minimum size of 13" and slotted at 20", with 2 per day oversized

Mississippi has 15 per day and 15", no upper limit

Alabama has 6 per day, slotted at 15-20", one per day oversized.

I can assure you each State has a robust sampling program and vetted assessment models, that don't have some commie b@stard pinko enviro-turd behind the curtain turning all the knobs. I'm familiar with all the players, and while I won't say that CCA (or other environmental groups who are even more radical) don't have many Legislators ears, each State relies on their data to make those decisions.
CS

Full Disclosure - I represent the State of TX on a nation-wide Climate Change Adaptation Board, and it's quite ironic that I don't believe in Global/Climate ________ you, you know the thing!!!!