Corpusfishing.com

[Bluffer]

Now they say its coming this direction....

While the track forecast for Alex today through Monday is fairly well-assured, the longer range forecast has become highly uncertain. An increasing number of our reliable models are now indicating Alex may take a more northerly track beginning on Tuesday, with possible landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston on Friday (according to the 8am run of the GFS model) or into western Louisiana on Wednesday (the 8am run of the Canadian model.) The key question remains how Alex will react to the trough of low pressure expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Most of the models were predicting that the trough would not be strong enough to swing Alex to the north, and several of them continue to predict this. The 8am run of the NOGAPS model, for example, takes Alex into the Gulf coast of Mexico 150 miles south of Texas, on Wednesday. The GFDL and HWRF models split the difference, with the GFDL predicting a Thursday landfall in southern Texas near Brownsville, and the HWRF predicting a Thursday landfall near Corpus Christi. So which model should you trust? Last year, the best performing models at the 3 - 4 days period were the GFS and the Canadian, and these are the models that are currently calling for the more northerly track towards the upper Texas coast and Louisiana. Residents of those areas should review their hurricane preparedness plans and anticipate the Alex could make landfall as early as Wednesday in their vicinity.

Re-intensification of Alex is likely once the center of Alex moves offshore, though this will initially be slow due to the current disorganized state of the storm and the relatively low total ocean heat content in the 100-mile-wide stretch of water on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once Alex moves more than 100 miles from the Yucatan, total heat content of the ocean increases substantially, and Alex will have the opportunity to intensify significantly. A longer time spent over water will give Alex more of a chance to strengthen, and it is possible Alex could intensify into a major hurricane if landfall is delayed until Thursday or Friday. However, Alex's intensification may be limited the farther north it gets, as water vapor satellite images show plenty of dry air over Texas that might interfere with development. Wind shear might also be an issue for Alex if it pushes far enough north, and a slow-moving storm tends to pull up cold water from the depths, limiting intensification. In short, Alex has the potential to intensify into a major hurricane, but there are plenty of roadblocks that make this only a 10% probability in my estimation.


Figure 2. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms during 2009. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET+United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; CMC=Canadian GEM model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models; BAMM=Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2009 verification report.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands has been pretty much torn apart, and is no longer a threat to develop.

Next post
I'd write more, but they just hit the tornado sirens for my city here in Michigan, and I'd better wrap this up before the power goes out. Wunderground's severe weather expert Dr. Rob Carver will likely be posting an update on Alex late tonight. My next update will be Monday by 10am EDT.

Jeff Masters
_________________
-STAY THIRSTY MY FRIENDS!-

[Capt Mike Singleterry]

Hey Kenny....I think I'll go with land fall Thursday somewhere between
Corpus Christi and Brownsville as a strong TD.

Mike

[NaplesJohn]

Should be tighter in the next 24 hours...we could use the rain.

[Bluffer]

[Bluffer]

[NaplesJohn]

Big difference between the "ensemble" and the "forecast" maps.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201001_ensmodel.html#a_topad
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201001_5day.html#a_topad[/img]
OK guys, why such a big difference?

[Big John]

One thing I have noticed is that the storms they predict coming this way inevitable seem to have their forecasted path move further and further north along the coast line. Thin about all the past storms over the last few years. even the major ones. The cone gets smaller and smaller everyday as it moves closer and closer but it seems to inch itsway up the coast every day as well.

I am predicting within 20 miles of Corpus Christi because I am on vacation this week and planning the spend the second half of the week and the weekend on PINS.

[Capt Mike Singleterry]

[Bluffer]

[gunbuyer]

If they say Northern Mexico think CC! If they say CC think Houston or Northern Mexico. THEY ARE ALMOST ALWAYS WRONG THIS FAR OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[FB PHIL]

As a Navy weather forcaster for 22 yrs with lots of experience with tropical forecasting, I can tell you for sure that one of the things the the fcstrs in Miami do is adjust the tracks to head toward population centers to get the public moving/prepared and cover their butts. I think the track of it going into Mex near Tampico is the logical choice and even if it does swing north and is offshore of the Tx coast, we won't get much here(just like Ike), except some high tides.

[FB PHIL]

Check out this site: http://www.weather.com/maps/news/epacdefault/mexicosatellite_large.html

Alex is right on the coast entering the Bay of Campeche.

[Bigrock]

I just go with NOAA-NWS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023314.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Ya'll gonna be fine.

[trapperbob10]

With a southern land fall, what effect will Alex have on the tides at PINS and when does the Park close due to high tides?

[ironmanstan]