Corpusfishing.com

[fishinglady]

I don't understand all the hysteria over the swine flu. No one gets excited when tens of thousands of US citizens die every year from the regular flu.

According to reports:
But even if there are swine-flu deaths outside Mexico -- and medical experts say there very well may be -- the virus would have a long way to go to match the roughly 36,000 deaths that seasonal influenza causes in the United States each year.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/regular.flu/

[seaweed]

I'm convinced that it's being brought up from Mexico by the turtles. We should all call our representative and demand that the State do all it can to prevent those virus carrying reptiles from landing on PINS.

[TeamMorningWood]

[Big John]

Thisis the issue. The kill rate stangs at 7% right now, all in Mexico, none here yet, thankfully. The kill rate for the Spainish flu, was 2 to 3 %. The regular flu is less than 2/10 of 1%.

http://www.cureresearch.com/f/flu/stats.htm

They do expect to see stronger cases here too and deaths. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090429/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu_242

Here locally, they have now closed all comal county ISD schools until 5/11. Several confirmed cases and hundreds more reported. Same for NY, except now it is over 1500. They are no longer even trying to have people tested. If you are ill they say to stay home and everyone else in the family should stay home too. They say do not go to the doctor or the hospital. An entire city, Cibolo, has been shut down by the state health department. I have seen most health care workers wearing masks now. They are scanning the border for sick people who are coming back to the US in droves. Problem is, you are contagious with this for up to 48 hours before you show any symptoms and the they now believe for several days after getting better.

If this wan't a big deal, no worse than a normal flu, why would they say that? If it wasn't a big deal, then why did the State Health Department close two entire schools districts down with less than a days notice? Never seen that with the regular flu before.

Also, governement officials that handle emergencies know that to manage it you have to keep the people calm and orderly. Do you think they are going to come out on TV and say "When this spreads around the world, based on current kill rates over 300 to 400 million will die?" Of course not. Just like you don't yell Fire. They have already declared it a health emergency. Why? Why go through all the trouble?

Think about it. I hope it is not a pandemic and they are able to contain it, but if it is, things are going to be bad.

Fun flu facts, the Spainish Flu is actually believe to originated in Kansas, and was spread by American soldiers during WWI. However it is difficult to isolate with certainty.

It came in three waves over 2 years. The first wave didn't have any appreciable kill rates over normal flu virus, the next two did.

Most people who die from the flu actually die from complications, mainly pnuemonia.

[kadiyaker]

Got to admit I haven't read all the posts...

I have worked with avian influenza virus for years, mainly in the development of diagnostics and some vaccine work. I started a PhD working on it, so I know a little more about it than the average person.

This virus is not as bad as the media is making it out to be. I would still be worried as a pandemic is inevitable. It will happen. It could happen with this virus, these viruses mutate extrodanarily fast, especially when in the mainstream population.

This was posted on the wire today...

In relation to the questions posed by Prof. Morris [see: Influenza A
(H1N1) "swine flu": worldwide (03) archived as 20090428.1600]: My
group and I are analyzing the recent sequences from the isolates in
Texas and California of swine H1N1 deposited in National Center for
Biotechnology Information (NCBI) (A/California/ 04/2009(H1N1),
A/California/05/2009(H1N1), A/California/ 06/2009(H1N1),
A/California/07/2009(H1N1), A/California/ 09/2009(H1N1),
A/Texas/04/2009(H1N1) and A/Texas/05/2009(H1N1).

The preliminary analysis using all the sequences in public databases
(NCBI) suggests that all segments are of swine origin. NA and MP seem
related to Asian/European swine and the rest to North American swine
(H1N2 and H3N2 swine viruses isolated since 1998). There is also
interesting substratification between these groups, suggesting a
multiple reassortment.

We are puzzled about sources of information that affirm that the
virus is a reassortment of avian, human and swine viruses. It is true
that the H3N2 swine virus from 1998 and 1999 is a triple reassortant,
but all the related isolates are found since then in swine.

--
Raul Rabadan, PhD
Assistant Professor
Department of Biomedical Informatics
Center for Computational Biology and Bioinformatics
Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons
1130 St. Nicholas Ave
ICRC Bldg 8th Floor, Office 803B
New York, NY 10032
<rabadan>
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Posted by

KadiyaKer



'Tis better to be silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt.

[Big John]

Thanks for the info Dr.

Side note, Thw Wordl Health Organization raised the threat level to 5 out of 6. Let's all dance with Mr Bean!

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[bk005]

How many people die in Mexico from regular flu and drinking crappy water a day down there. Alot of parts a re pretty much 3rd world, so Im not sure how the data compares.

[kadiyaker]

Good point. The standard of care is obviously lower in Mexico, but remember, most of us associate Mexico with what we know at the border. Not a good place. Mexico City is a different story - 20 million people - that makes Houston look like Hempstead. If something contagious gets loose there, statistics will kill a hell of a lot of people.
In my opinion, this will be a bad flu season, this flu will be called a pandemic, this flu will kill more people than most (>36K / year), all that is inevitable at this point. Some of those folks who have been vaccinated (70's I think???) might still be protected, so IMS you may be able to donate your plasma to save your family if this thing goes apocalyptic. However, it is not at that point. It has a very high morbidity, but a wimpy mortality rate. That can all change very fast. You should watch out if this thing comes back next fall, then you want to worry, especially if it has made it into Southeast Asia and back. When you hear of the mortality rate reaching over 10% you should be really scared. The Bird Flu in asia... mortality rate of well over 50% (depends what you read) that means one in two people die that become infected. That flu however is not very contagious, so we get to live normal lives. If it makes the jump and becomes a very contagious virus and the folks down there loose containment… now that's apocalyptic. Hopefully Mr. Obama will have bought a vaccine by then and save us all... Change... something we don't want the flu to do. Viruses only get worse.
I'm not a political person, but its funny how those things work themselves into every situation that doesn't need politics.

What do you guys think about the 'higher ups' not wanting to close the border with mexico? I heard today there is no foreseeable circumstance that would make the US close its border with Mexico.
_________________
Posted by

KadiyaKer



'Tis better to be silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt.

[snakecan2]

a buddy of mine just told me that his cousin has a confirmed case of the h1n1 virus.. ok.. swine flu.. poor pigs. .
he is quarantined to his home for 10days..

hummn. no contact with humans. ......sounds like i am getting sick.. time to go fishing again
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Fish and Hunt Baby.... so tight lines and clear scopes.

[o_brother]

I saw V.P. Bidon on the Morning Show this morning. He was asked about closing the border to Mexico.. His answer was something like, "Our border people are watching for anyone that is showing signs of being sick." He has no clue............. You can be contagious(sp) for 48 hrs before you start to show any symptons....... I for one believe that extra steps should be taken but what and how far, I don't know. UIL has cancelled all events for a couple weeks now and schools are being closed everywhere a suspected case is found... My daughter plays on a Club Volleyball team that has a National Qualifing Tournement this weekend in Houston. 400 teams and several thousand people will be in the Brown Convention Center.. We have to decided today whether or not the team will still go.......

Mike
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Come out of the grass with your fins up.......