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FoldCatOne
Full Grown Flour Bluffian
Joined: 16 Sep 2009
Posts: 1159
Location: Kerrville
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 Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:23 pm Post subject: |
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One of the problems being experienced with Covid-19 is that it causes a very weak (if at all) antibody response. Therefore quite a few infected people aren't becoming immune and as seen can get the virus more than one time. That also negates the effectiveness of a vaccine. Minimal antibody response to vaccine makes it too often worthless to use.
This virus like all virus' lives only to reproduce. Unlike the Ebola virus which is actually self limiting - it kills all infected quickly so can be contained (no Typhoid Mary's) this virus only kills a few, leaving lots of Typhoid Mary's to infect or re-infect others.
The scary scenario will be this fall when kids resume school (doubtful) and the regular flu gets going. Add to that in the Hill Country the annual misery of Cedar Fever. The symptoms of each are the same and you could end up with all 3 at once. Testing will be overwhelmed.
I think I'll stay up here in Arkansas until something improves.
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Gary J
NA3VY
Ham Radio and Fishing - Is There Anything Else??
I'm Ultra-Conservative - Rush is a Liberal |
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Curlew0412
Finger Mullet
Joined: 23 Apr 2014
Posts: 40
Location: Rockport
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| Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:01 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="rodandroll"][quote="Curlew0412"]If the "average" transmission rate is 3.1 persons per week and if that can be extrapolated to 136 persons infected in a month (per this article) and if (we take the low number) 1 in 50 people in the county have already been infected, that means everyone in Nueces County will be infected in next 2 weeks. Using that logic, herd immunity will be achieved in 2 weeks and Covid will be finished. How in the world do these people come up with such unsubstantiated numbers?[/quote]
Amazing, isn't it. Way to many "wannabe" experts out there. That's why I am out on this thread.[/quote]
It is simple math. I guess that is too much to comprehend for some people. |
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FoldCatOne
Full Grown Flour Bluffian
Joined: 16 Sep 2009
Posts: 1159
Location: Kerrville
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| Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:44 pm Post subject: |
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But as reported you have young skulls full of mush getting together and deciding to race and see who can be the first to catch Covid-19 there is little hope. Each generation says the next generation is the worst. At 71 I've seen a few generations and never have I seen a group of people that feels so "entitled" to everything except for hard work. As a country we really need some hard hard times to adjust the attitude of our population. Thank God I am not 15-35 years old today
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Gary J
NA3VY
Ham Radio and Fishing - Is There Anything Else??
I'm Ultra-Conservative - Rush is a Liberal |
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BayFly
Full Grown Flour Bluffian
Joined: 02 Sep 2014
Posts: 1728
Location: Austin/Flour Bluff
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| Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:02 pm Post subject: |
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Today's report from the Nueces County Health Services is 203 new cases, a total of 3796 cases, and 14 deaths. One of the most concerning parts of the report states 80 in ICU out of many more hospitalized. There is not a good report on the recovery of those who go into ICU with the CCP Virus, unfortunately. Keep covered out there, keep your distance, and wash your hands regularly, please. Fortunately, the number of new cases decreased from the previous days, so maybe that will continue to drop. Let's hope so!
In case these numbers don't mean anything to you, the total cases reported on June 17 were 243, thus today's total is a 3253 case increase in about 15 days! |
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rodandroll
Full Grown Flour Bluffian
Joined: 17 Jan 2007
Posts: 1814
Location: Kerrville, Tx
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| Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Curlew0412 wrote: | | rodandroll wrote: | | Curlew0412 wrote: | | If the "average" transmission rate is 3.1 persons per week and if that can be extrapolated to 136 persons infected in a month (per this article) and if (we take the low number) 1 in 50 people in the county have already been infected, that means everyone in Nueces County will be infected in next 2 weeks. Using that logic, herd immunity will be achieved in 2 weeks and Covid will be finished. How in the world do these people come up with such unsubstantiated numbers? |
Amazing, isn't it. Way to many "wannabe" experts out there. That's why I am out on this thread. |
It is simple math. I guess that is too much to comprehend for some people. |
Just in case - I was agreeing with you.
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Now that food has replaced my sex life I can't even get into my own pants!!!!!!!!
Even duct tape can't fix stupid ... but it can muffle the sound!!! |
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Curlew0412
Finger Mullet
Joined: 23 Apr 2014
Posts: 40
Location: Rockport
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| Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:50 am Post subject: |
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| Thanks sorry about that. I agree with you about being tired of the subject. |
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Jiggyz
Pony Mullet
Joined: 11 Apr 2013
Posts: 57
Location: Austin
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| Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:47 am Post subject: |
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| Curlew0412 wrote: | | If the "average" transmission rate is 3.1 persons per week and if that can be extrapolated to 136 persons infected in a month (per this article) and if (we take the low number) 1 in 50 people in the county have already been infected, that means everyone in Nueces County will be infected in next 2 weeks. Using that logic, herd immunity will be achieved in 2 weeks and Covid will be finished. How in the world do these people come up with such unsubstantiated numbers? |
Not sure how you are doing the math. Can you show your work?
Also, I am not sure one can extrapolate the rate of growth on a sustained basis in the real world, due to the fact that once you start to reach large numbers (even for a county), the effort required to repeat the growth rate becomes more difficult and, from a numbers standpoint unwieldy.
For example, take the the story of doubling rice, set in India. Depending on the version of the story, someone is asking the "king" for rice and all they ask is for a chessboard to be cleaned and one grain of rice set on the first square on the first day, two grains of rice set on the second square the second day, 4 grains of rice set on the 3rd square the next day and so on.
By the time you get to the 64th and final square, there is enough rice to cover all of India in two or three feet of rice. Pretty amazing.
The principle is also illustrated with the folding table cloth story as well. A normal table cloth is folded upon itself for 64 folds. By the 64th fold, the folded table cloth would be so high that it could reach the moon.
For the US, consider Dr. Fauci's claim that the infection rate could get to 100,000 cases per day. At that rate constant daily rate it would take almost 9 years to infect everyone and 5-6 years to reach heard immunity, if such a thing can even be obtained with this wonky virus. In this case the R rate actually goes down on a daily basis as more people become infected the infection rate of spread must go down in order to maintain a constant number of infections on a daily basis. |
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roberino
Finger Mullet
Joined: 20 Dec 2018
Posts: 42
Location: Austin
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| Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:36 am Post subject: |
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I wasn't doing the math just reporting it, the math was done by the local university and reported by local news. If i were to do the math I imagine it would require something like 3.1 * 3.1 * 3.1 * 3.1 * some remainder to finish out the month (month is just over 4 weeks). It sounds like you have a pretty good grasp of the exponential function so you probably didn't need to see how its calculated. Sounds like you may even be old enough to remember the rule of 72.
Your right you cannot extrapolate that rate forward until full saturation; as more people are infected the pool of available people to infect decreases, so everything else equal the rate must fall. Thats the basic concept behind heard immunity. You would also hope that as it got worse some folks would remove their heads from their backsides to mask them. At full saturation Nuances county's 350k people could expect to see at least 5,000 deaths. Everyone is entitled to decide for themselves if thats a big deal or not.
Firing off personal attacks online about "wannabe" experts and "simple" math may make you feel good, but thats about it. Not dying on a gurney outside a pack hospital will make you feel a whole lot better.
mask up! |
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Jiggyz
Pony Mullet
Joined: 11 Apr 2013
Posts: 57
Location: Austin
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| Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:04 am Post subject: |
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| roberino wrote: | I wasn't doing the math just reporting it, the math was done by the local university and reported by local news. If i were to do the math I imagine it would require something like 3.1 * 3.1 * 3.1 * 3.1 * some remainder to finish out the month (month is just over 4 weeks). It sounds like you have a pretty good grasp of the exponential function so you probably didn't need to see how its calculated.
Your right you cannot extrapolate that rate forward until full saturation; as more people are infected the pool of available people to infect decreases, so everything else equal the rate must fall. Thats the basic concept behind heard immunity. You would also hope that as it got worse some folks would remove their heads from their backsides to mask them. At full saturation Nuances county's 350k people could expect to see at least 5,000 deaths. Everyone is entitled to decide for themselves if thats a big deal or not.
Firing off personal attacks online about "wannabe" experts and "simple" math may make you feel good, but thats about it. Not dying on a gurney outside a pack hospital is its own kind of reward. |
Not a personal attack and I did not mean to offend. I had assumed the math was more complicated than what you presented, but as it turns out that is exactly what they did. I did not see the original article, so I am not sure what conclusions they made or if there were any other calculations. But yes on the face of it, those conclusions at that growth rate were outlandish, so outlandish that it went right over my head.
Just trying to make sure we try and keep it real, which I realize its hard to do on this site, given its propensity to truncate posts with links and quotes that end up editing the original submissions into gibberish. |
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roberino
Finger Mullet
Joined: 20 Dec 2018
Posts: 42
Location: Austin
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| Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:38 am Post subject: |
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| No worries, that part was for folks using those terms earlier. I get my undies bundled when folks act like its all a bunch of hooey |
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rodandroll
Full Grown Flour Bluffian
Joined: 17 Jan 2007
Posts: 1814
Location: Kerrville, Tx
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| Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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| roberino wrote: | I wasn't doing the math just reporting it, the math was done by the local university and reported by local news. If i were to do the math I imagine it would require something like 3.1 * 3.1 * 3.1 * 3.1 * some remainder to finish out the month (month is just over 4 weeks). It sounds like you have a pretty good grasp of the exponential function so you probably didn't need to see how its calculated. Sounds like you may even be old enough to remember the rule of 72.
Your right you cannot extrapolate that rate forward until full saturation; as more people are infected the pool of available people to infect decreases, so everything else equal the rate must fall. Thats the basic concept behind heard immunity. You would also hope that as it got worse some folks would remove their heads from their backsides to mask them. At full saturation Nuances county's 350k people could expect to see at least 5,000 deaths. Everyone is entitled to decide for themselves if thats a big deal or not.
Firing off personal attacks online about "wannabe" experts and "simple" math may make you feel good, but thats about it. Not dying on a gurney outside a pack hospital will make you feel a whole lot better.
mask up! |
Meant exactly what I said about "wannabe" experts. If the shoe fits - WEAR IT. By the way, where did you suddenly come from????
_________________
Now that food has replaced my sex life I can't even get into my own pants!!!!!!!!
Even duct tape can't fix stupid ... but it can muffle the sound!!! |
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rodandroll
Full Grown Flour Bluffian
Joined: 17 Jan 2007
Posts: 1814
Location: Kerrville, Tx
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| Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:31 pm Post subject: |
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| roberino wrote: | | No worries, that part was for folks using those terms earlier. I get my panties is a bunch when folks act like its all a bunch of hooey |
Fixed it for you.
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Now that food has replaced my sex life I can't even get into my own pants!!!!!!!!
Even duct tape can't fix stupid ... but it can muffle the sound!!! |
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hickroots07
Full Grown Flour Bluffian
Joined: 01 Nov 2011
Posts: 1714
Location: cc, TEXAS!
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| Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:22 pm Post subject: |
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| rodandroll wrote: | | roberino wrote: | | No worries, that part was for folks using those terms earlier. I get my panties is a bunch when folks act like its all a bunch of hooey |
Fixed it for you. |
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Great captains, the stuff of legend, are made not by what they have caught, but by what they have given back. |
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Tyler
Site Admin
Joined: 06 Mar 2006
Posts: 12865
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| Posted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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Sorry, I let this run more rampant than the Virus. I have been dealing with a lot of life issues so my apologies.
Becky and I and a friend got limits of reds Sunday! 
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